I have found this exchange of ideas fascinating on both professional and personal fronts, but here I am going to deal mainly with the personal side. If you have looked at my pansapien website you will know that I grew up as a Christian and later in life I changed my mind. The earlier decision I had made no longer held water for me. My original decision was one made under uncertainty and I hadn’t properly applied a confidence level/likelihood to my conclusion. After revisiting that decision and applying new evidence and an associated uncertainty/confidence level my mind has been changed.
An important aspect to decision making in uncertain conditions is to understand human cognitive biases and seek to recognise our personal biases and reduce them as far as possible. To make the best decisions we need to use the best evidence available, not our own pre-existing preferences and views. But this is not something we humans do naturally as highlighted by 'Action Science' as developed by Chris Argyris.
Actions science suggests that we have an espoused theory of action which describes our values and how we like to think we behave (and normally do in everyday decisions of little importance). The ‘Espoused Theory’ is contrasted with the ‘Theory in Use’, which describes how we actually behave and make decisions when things are particularly threatening or important to us or there is a lot at stake. The table below compares these contrasting ways that we act.
Theory in Use (Model I)
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Espoused Theory (Model II)
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Ideally we would all use model II all of the time, but clearly that is not the case. Model I kicks in when something is very important to us and we want to be in control. When we operate using model I, or rely on others who are displaying model I behaviour, we are more likely to make errors of judgement. The consequence being that when we need to be our best we are often our worst at making decisions. Typically when operating in model I we will:
- Espouse our values (Model II behaviour)
- Act in ways that conflict with our espoused values
- Deny that a contradiction exists
- Make the subject un-discussable (and the fact it is un-discussable is also un-discussable)
Typical Model I Behaviour
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Model I Behaviour in Religion
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Model I Behaviour in Business
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The intention of a person who displays model I behaviour is to exhibit confidence and reassurance, but they actually come across as inconsistent and incompetent. I don’t think someones judgement can be relied upon in the area where they display model I behaviour.
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